By Economic data and macro indicators from across the world are painting a more encouraging picture than many economists predicted. The OECD interim Economic Outlook published in September 2025 shows that both U.S. and global growth are holding up better than expected—even in the face of recent tariff hikes and supply chain pressures.
Global GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% for 2025, up from the earlier June projection of 2.9%. Reuters The U.S. economy is forecast to grow by 1.8% this year, bolstered in part by strong AI investment and fiscal stimulus, though a slowdown to about 1.5% in 2026 is expected.
China is among the top performers, with 2025 growth now expected around 4.9%, though it is likely to taper off in 2026. On the other hand, the euro zone sees sluggish gains with certain countries weighed down by inflation, high energy costs, and debt burdens.
The report also notes that while inventories and short-term buffers have helped absorb the initial shock from U.S. tariffs, many firms have done so by squeezing margins. As those buffers run down, the risk of a sharper slowdown increases.
Ultimately, the current picture is one of cautious optimism: growth is likely to decelerate, but the resilience so far suggests policies (monetary, fiscal) are working hard to mitigate downside risks. For decision-makers, the challenge will be maintaining balance—stimulating growth without reigniting inflation or exacerbating global trade frictions.