By As global markets contend with economic slowdowns, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, one sector appears to be flying above the turbulence: aviation. Despite industry-wide challenges, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts $36 billion in net profits for 2025, building on the $32.4 billion reported in 2024.
Aircraft Manufacturing Bottlenecks
One of the biggest hurdles for airlines in 2025 has been aircraft delivery shortfalls. Major manufacturers, including Airbus and Boeing, are falling behind due to lingering supply chain issues. According to IATA, aircraft deliveries this year are expected to be nearly 26% below earlier forecasts. This shortage threatens to impact airline capacity plans and fleet renewals.
Revenue Gains in the Face of Pressure
Nonetheless, the aviation industry continues to show remarkable stability, with projected revenues reaching $979 billion in 2025—a modest but meaningful 1.3% rise over the previous year. Carriers are benefiting from sustained passenger demand and cost efficiencies, despite global GDP growth slowing to 2.5%.
Lower Fuel Prices Offer Breathing Room
Jet fuel prices have dipped in recent months due to stronger OPEC+ supply. This has provided cost relief to airlines, enabling better margins and sparking optimism for fare moderation—though IATA cautions this could also reduce total industry revenue.
Sustainability Targets and SAF Scaling
Aviation continues its march toward net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) output is also gaining momentum, with production expected to double this year, now accounting for approximately 0.7% of the sector’s overall fuel usage. However, logistical and financial barriers remain in scaling SAF usage industry-wide.
Looking Ahead
Despite production constraints and macroeconomic concerns, the aviation sector remains a growth outlier. Airlines are adjusting to supply-side pressures with agility, keeping long-term sustainability and profit goals on track.