By While TSMC celebrated a 60% profit surge, analysts focused on the looming policy risks that could derail its dominance:
Threat Matrix:
• 25% tariff proposal on advanced chips
• Stalled Arizona fab subsidies ($28B at risk)
• China export ban on 16nm+ technology
“TSMC is caught in the crossfire,” said Bernstein’s Mark Li. Contingency plans include:
✓ Accelerating Japanese 6nm production
✓ Diversifying to EU/Indian fabs
✓ Stockpiling 6 months of ASML spares
The financial armor:
→ $64B cash reserves
→ 58% global foundry market share
→ 92% customer retention rate
But vulnerabilities remain:
- 65% revenue from U.S. clients
- 18% from China (down from 22%)
- 7nm overcapacity emerging