By OPEC+’s decision to ramp up production has triggered a supply glut, forcing Goldman Sachs to slash its oil price forecasts and warn of further declines if the cartel doesn’t reverse course.
Why OPEC’s Move Backfired:
- Saudi Arabia’s Output Hike: +300K bpd despite weak demand
- Russia’s Non-Compliance: Exceeding quotas by 200K bpd
- UAE’s Aggressive Expansion: Boosting capacity despite warnings
Goldman’s Analysis:
- Global surplus could hit 1.5M bpd by Q4
- Storage levels rising at fastest pace since 2020
- Refiners cutting purchases amid economic uncertainty
Price Scenarios:
- Base Case: 75−80 (if OPEC holds steady)
- Bear Case: 65−70 (if demand weakens further)
- Bull Case: $85+ (only if OPEC cuts unexpectedly)